Happy Saturday night to all of you. While much of Missouri remained dry throughout our Saturday afternoon, we had scattered showers in parts of northern Arkansas during the day. Once we arrived in the late afternoon and early evening, we had isolated and powerful showers and thunderstorms in areas east of Springfield along and south of US Highway 60 These storms have become severe due to the risk of wind gusts near 60 mph. and quarter sized hail. Some of these storms caused minor wind damage to parts of southern Wright and eastern Douglas County before they moved eastward. These storms were triggered before a cold front moved through the Ozarks.
While the slight chance of thunderstorms will have passed late tonight, we’ll be holding out for the possibility of a few isolated showers in northern Arkansas overnight. Notice how FutureCast keeps much of the area dry overnight, with partly cloudy skies turning mostly clear.
Another thing the passing cold front will do is bring the fall back into the Ozarks to wrap up the weekend. With morning lows dropping back into the lower 60s across the region, we will remain warm on Sunday afternoon. However, it will be a nice warm afternoon with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to near 80s.
One thing to keep in mind, however, is the dry air coming in. Although it is refreshing outside, humidity values are expected to be between 25% and 35% for Sunday afternoon. With humidity readings this low and occasional gusts close to 20 mph at times for the afternoon ahead, this could increase the risk of fires in parts of the Ozarks. Check or plan accordingly if you plan to burn outdoors on Sundays.
The same setup applies for your Monday as we return to work and school. With dry air in place, lows will drop back to near 50° across the region before highs bounce back into the low to mid 70s for the afternoon. The humidity values for Monday afternoon will however fluctuate between 25% and 35%. It could be another day with a high risk of fires in parts of the Ozarks.
And the rest of the week? The upper level pattern for the middle of the week maintains the upper level to our southwest. Therefore, the heat stays to our southwest. The upper level trough over New England will keep temperatures mild here as the pattern remains dry.
On Tuesday, the average high will be 77° around the Springfield area. After our forecast high of 77° on Tuesday, another cold front will arrive along the northwesterly circulation and will maintain highs in the lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. There are indications of a slight warming trend by next weekend. Right now we are expecting highs in the mid 70’s on Friday before pushing back near 80° next Saturday.
Speaking of next weekend, let’s look at the setup. We’ll stay dry as Hurricane Ian eventually makes landfall somewhere in the southeastern United States. The humidity with Ian will keep all the clouds and the chance of rain significant in our southeast.
There are indications that another wave is trying to arrive after next weekend. These indications, however, show that our next best shot for any chance of rain may have to wait until October 3-4. If any chance of rain tries to head our way before then, we will definitely bring it to your attention.
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