Fall returns to the Ozarks on Sunday and next week

Happy Saturday night to all of you. While much of Missouri remained dry throughout our Saturday afternoon, we had scattered showers in parts of northern Arkansas during the day. Once we arrived in the late afternoon and early evening, we had isolated and powerful showers and thunderstorms in areas east of Springfield along and south of US Highway 60 These storms have become severe due to the risk of wind gusts near 60 mph. and quarter sized hail. Some of these storms caused minor wind damage to parts of southern Wright and eastern Douglas County before they moved eastward. These storms were triggered before a cold front moved through the Ozarks.

Another cold front is moving through the Ozarks this Saturday evening. This same front that brought isolated thunderstorms to a few places will bring autumnal air to everyone on Sunday.(KY3)

While the slight chance of thunderstorms will have passed late tonight, we’ll be holding out for the possibility of a few isolated showers in northern Arkansas overnight. Notice how FutureCast keeps much of the area dry overnight, with partly cloudy skies turning mostly clear.

The passing cold front will attempt to keep a few isolated showers in the forecast for areas of...
The passing cold front will attempt to keep a few isolated showers in the forecast for areas of northern Arkansas and near the Missouri-Arkansas border overnight.(KY3)

Another thing the passing cold front will do is bring the fall back into the Ozarks to wrap up the weekend. With morning lows dropping back into the lower 60s across the region, we will remain warm on Sunday afternoon. However, it will be a nice warm afternoon with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to near 80s.

Behind the passing cold front, the temperatures will be pleasantly warm to conclude your weekend.
Behind the passing cold front, the temperatures will be pleasantly warm to conclude your weekend.(KY3)

One thing to keep in mind, however, is the dry air coming in. Although it is refreshing outside, humidity values ​​are expected to be between 25% and 35% for Sunday afternoon. With humidity readings this low and occasional gusts close to 20 mph at times for the afternoon ahead, this could increase the risk of fires in parts of the Ozarks. Check or plan accordingly if you plan to burn outdoors on Sundays.

While Sunday will be nice and feeling better with cooler temperatures, humidity readings will be...
While Sunday will be nice and feel better with cooler temperatures, the humidity values ​​will be lower on Sunday and Monday afternoon. Be aware as this may increase the fire danger for parts of the Ozarks.(KY3)

The same setup applies for your Monday as we return to work and school. With dry air in place, lows will drop back to near 50° across the region before highs bounce back into the low to mid 70s for the afternoon. The humidity values ​​for Monday afternoon will however fluctuate between 25% and 35%. It could be another day with a high risk of fires in parts of the Ozarks.

With drier air and sunshine on Monday, temperatures will drop from a low close to 50° to a mild...
With drier air and sunshine for Monday, temperatures will rise from lows near 50° to a mild afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 70s.(KY3)

And the rest of the week? The upper level pattern for the middle of the week maintains the upper level to our southwest. Therefore, the heat stays to our southwest. The upper level trough over New England will keep temperatures mild here as the pattern remains dry.

With the return ridge to the south and southwest, the upper level trough over New England will be...
With the ridge back to the south and southwest, the upper level trough over New England will keep mild air in place through the middle of the week ahead.(KY3)

On Tuesday, the average high will be 77° around the Springfield area. After our forecast high of 77° on Tuesday, another cold front will arrive along the northwesterly circulation and will maintain highs in the lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. There are indications of a slight warming trend by next weekend. Right now we are expecting highs in the mid 70’s on Friday before pushing back near 80° next Saturday.

Thanks to the dry weather and a higher level setup, the balmy air is holding up well into next week.
Thanks to the dry weather and a higher level setup, the balmy air is holding up well into next week.(KY3)

Speaking of next weekend, let’s look at the setup. We’ll stay dry as Hurricane Ian eventually makes landfall somewhere in the southeastern United States. The humidity with Ian will keep all the clouds and the chance of rain significant in our southeast.

Even with Hurricane Ian set to make landfall in the United States late next week,...
Even if Hurricane Ian wants to make landfall in the United States late next week, its influence on us will keep us dry and relatively mild.(KY3)

There are indications that another wave is trying to arrive after next weekend. These indications, however, show that our next best shot for any chance of rain may have to wait until October 3-4. If any chance of rain tries to head our way before then, we will definitely bring it to your attention.

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